Each February The Groundhog Checks His Shadow To See How Much Longer Winter Will

1. Each February the groundhog checks his shadow to see how much longer winter will last. In each of these

independent events there is a 50% chance that the groundhog correctly predicts the end of winter (50% that he is

incorrect). Since the early 1970s, the groundhog has predicted a longer winter 16 out of 30 times.

A. What is the probability that the groundhog will make at least 16 correct predictions in 30 years?

B. A meteorologist, using weather patterns, can predict correctly the end of winter with a probability of more

than 50%. Given that the meteorologist makes predictions over the next 30 years, would we expect to see

more variability in the outcomes of the groundhog or the meteorologist? Explain.